# WHG Solshine — Pricing & Launch Decision Matrix (S83-H183-B)

**Filed:** 2026-05-04 by CC. **Goal:** unblock Solshine launch by giving Brady a 4-decision matrix with opinionated default + alternatives. Same pattern as H182-D's BH Sovereignty Call spec.

## Current state (locked)

- ✅ `/whg/solshine/` page lives at witchhavengrove.com — `~/builders/build_wh_solshine.py` (S83-H24)
- ✅ Hard-coded price: **$24 / 4 oz jar**, ~15-20 servings per jar
- ✅ Recipe spec: `~/docs/ecosystem/briefs/2026-04-01_whg_solshine_recipe_system.md` (botanical formulation: nettles, horsetail, silica, Celtic salt; batch math for 96 oz, 1-gallon, 5-gallon, 15.5-gallon keg scales)
- ✅ MJ creative brief: `whg_solshine_mj_brief_2026-04-26.md` (6 product images planned)
- ✅ Waitlist email draft: `email_solshine_waitlist_2026-04-22_draft.md` (positions launch as "first batch April 28, first pour Fuega May 1")
- ✅ Cross-sell entry: `shared/cross_sell.py` `whg_solshine_reservation` (line 217-225)
- ✅ Distribution: in-person pickup only (kegs at events + 4 oz glass jars)
- ✅ Production: Mesa Local First kitchen (near-term) → Rimrock farm (long-term)

**The launch IS proceeding** — first pour locked May 1 Fuega. The decisions below are about **scaling beyond the pilot pour** into a sustainable product.

## Decision 1 — Unit economics & margin target

The $24/jar price is set. The question is target margin.

**Industry benchmarks for craft beverage / botanical wellness:**
- Direct-to-consumer artisan: 60-75% margin typical
- Wholesale-to-retail: 40-50% margin typical
- Pop-up event sales: 70-80% margin typical (no shipping/distributor overhead)

**Estimated COGS per 4 oz jar** (rough — Brady should validate):

| Component | Lean | Standard | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ingredients (nettles, horsetail, silica, salt — bulk batch / 32 jars) | $1.50 | $2.50 | $4.00 |
| 4 oz glass jar + lid | $1.20 | $1.80 | $2.50 |
| Custom label printed | $0.30 | $0.60 | $1.00 |
| Kitchen rental ($/jar amortized — Mesa Local First) | $1.50 | $2.50 | $4.00 |
| Brady labor (1 hr per 32 jars at $50/hr) | $1.56 | $1.56 | $1.56 |
| **Total COGS** | **$6.06** | **$8.96** | **$13.06** |
| **Margin at $24** | **75%** | **63%** | **46%** |

### ✅ Recommended

**Standard COGS scenario ($8.96/jar, 63% margin).** Sustainable, leaves room for scaling. Brady should validate the kitchen rental + ingredient costs by tracking the first batch (Apr 28 production for May 1 pour).

### Alternatives

- **Lean ($6/jar, 75% margin):** if Brady's bulk-buying ingredients drops further. Don't price-cut to lean COGS — reinvest the margin into label upgrade or jar quality.
- **Premium ($13/jar, 46% margin):** if Brady wants to source higher-end bottles or organic-certified ingredients. Doesn't change the $24 retail; absorbs cost.

**Action:** Track first batch COGS during May 1 production. If COGS comes in >$10/jar, raise retail to $28/jar before second batch.

## Decision 2 — Pre-order vs on-demand pricing flow

Three options:

### Option A — **Pay-at-pickup only (current waitlist email default)**
- Customer reserves on form (no charge)
- Pays cash/Stripe Tap at the event when they pick up the jar
- Simple, no compliance overhead

**Pros:** Zero fraud risk, lowest friction signup, matches "show up to events" community vibe.
**Cons:** No commitment — reserves can ghost; hard to plan batch sizes.

### Option B — **$5 deposit + balance at pickup**
- Customer pays $5 reservation via Stripe (non-refundable holds the jar)
- Pays remaining $19 cash/Stripe at the event
- Customer can transfer reservation to another person if they can't make it

**Pros:** Commitment signal; protects against ghost reservations; deposit covers jar cost if no-show.
**Cons:** Two-payment friction; bookkeeping complexity.

### Option C — **Full $24 pre-pay via Stripe**
- Customer pays $24 upfront via Stripe link
- Picks up at next event
- 14-day refund window if no event in window

**Pros:** Maximum commitment + cashflow upfront; cleanest accounting; standard e-commerce pattern.
**Cons:** Higher friction signup; no "hand-money-at-event" community feel; refund handling overhead.

### ✅ Recommended

**Option A (pay-at-pickup) for pilot through first 30 jars.** Brady's already-built waitlist form supports this. Validate demand before adding payment friction. **Switch to Option C (full pre-pay) once first 30 sold** — more sustainable for batch planning.

### Alternatives

- **Hybrid:** Option A for in-person regulars + Option C for new buyers via the public landing page. Brady-managed segmentation.
- **Tip jar at event:** keep Option A but add a tip jar / "extra solshine" funder at the event venue. Captures upside.

## Decision 3 — Batch cadence + venue rotation

Waitlist email claims "every two weeks" cadence. Realistic?

**Resource constraints:**
- Mesa Local First kitchen: rental availability per Brady's schedule
- Brady's labor: 1-2 hours per 32-jar batch (assumed) + 30 min for jar/label prep
- Refrigeration: jars need cold storage at home/venue between events
- Ingredient sourcing: nettles + horsetail are seasonal/wildcrafted

**Recommended batch cadence: every 2-3 weeks** (conservative side of waitlist email).

**Venue rotation matrix** (per `per_brand_state_2026-05-04.md`):

| Week | Event | Venue | Estimated jars sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | Fuega May 1 | Downside Up | 8-15 |
| May 15 | Fuega May 15 | Downside Up | 10-20 |
| May 30 | ShareCraft | Strip Mall | 5-10 |
| June 26 | Fuega June 26 | TBD | 10-15 |
| Saturdays | Strip Mall pours | RoseCourt Strip Mall | 3-5 each |

**Recommended:** 32-jar batch every 2 weeks (matches Fuega cadence), supplemented by smaller 8-jar batches for Strip Mall Saturdays.

### Alternatives

- **Single 64-jar batch / month** — fewer kitchen trips, more storage. Less fresh.
- **Triple 16-jar mini-batches / month** — fresher, more flexibility. More Brady-time.

## Decision 4 — Distribution scope phase 2

After first 30 jars sold, decision: stay pickup-only or add shipping?

**Pickup-only stays:**
- Lower compliance overhead (no FDA shipping reqs for non-supplement food)
- Forces in-person community engagement (aligned with WHG voice)
- Cap on geographic reach

**Add shipping (after 30 sold):**
- Insulated shipping cost: ~$8-12/jar (cold-pack + 2-day shipping in AZ summer)
- Charge $36 shipped (=$24 + $12 shipping) or $32 with subsidized shipping
- Compliance: jars need batch # + production date labels
- Geographic expansion to ecosystem cross-brand subscribers

### ✅ Recommended

**Pickup-only for first 30 jars sold (~3 batches / 6 weeks). Then evaluate shipping based on:**
- Shipping requests received (Brady tracks via waitlist form question "Local pickup or shipping?")
- AZ summer heat impact on viability (Solshine is hydration blend — May/June feasibility OK; July-Sept = cold-pack only)
- Brady's bandwidth — shipping adds packing labor

If demand is strong + Brady has time, expand shipping in week 7. If not, stay pickup-only through summer + revisit fall.

## Composite recommendation (Brady can copy-paste)

> **Solshine launch plan v1, May-July 2026:**
> - $24 / 4 oz jar, target 63% margin (validate after first batch)
> - Pay-at-pickup only for first 30 jars (Option A)
> - 32-jar batch every 2 weeks at Mesa Local First kitchen
> - Venues: Fuega May 1, Fuega May 15, ShareCraft May 30, Fuega June 26 + ad-hoc Strip Mall pours
> - Pickup-only distribution through first 30 sold
> - Re-evaluate at jar 31: shipping yes/no, pricing adjustment yes/no, batch cadence yes/no

## 3-week ramp plan

### Week 1 (this week)
- ✅ Decision matrix filed (this doc)
- Brady picks (or pivots) → Stripe products created if Option B/C chosen
- Mesa Local First kitchen booked for Apr 28 production

### Week 2 (May 1-7)
- First batch produced Apr 28
- First pour Fuega May 1 — track jar count, payment method, customer feedback
- Update `/whg/solshine/` page with "Available next: May 15 Fuega" if pickup-only stays

### Week 3 (May 8-15)
- Second batch produced May 12 for May 15 Fuega
- Tracking: COGS validation, customer repeat-rate signal
- Decision review: any pricing adjustments needed?

## Decision matrix summary (one-screen scan)

| Decision | ✅ Recommended | Alternative 1 | Alternative 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| **1. Margin target** | Standard COGS ~$9/jar, 63% margin | Lean $6 (75%) | Premium $13 (46%) |
| **2. Payment flow** | Pay-at-pickup (Option A) | $5 deposit + balance (B) | Full $24 pre-pay (C) |
| **3. Batch cadence** | 32-jar every 2 weeks + Strip Mall mini-batches | Single 64/month | Triple 16-jar/month |
| **4. Distribution** | Pickup-only first 30 → reconsider shipping | Pickup permanent | Add shipping at jar 31 |

## What's NOT in this matrix

- FDA / cottage food law compliance (Brady should verify Solshine qualifies as cottage food vs. requires commercial kitchen — Mesa Local First commercial certified handles this)
- Ingredient supply chain (nettles wildcrafting permits, sourcing reliability)
- Tax handling (sales tax at events vs. shipping)
- Refund policy
- Spoilage / shelf life / labeling requirements

These are Brady-action items either pre-launch (compliance) or post-30-jars (operational refinement).

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_Filed S83-H183-B (2026-05-04 by CC). Solshine has the spec, the recipe, the page, the cross-sell entry. The blocker was decision-matrix-not-existing — now resolved. Brady reads, picks, and the launch is fully unblocked. Recommended path is opinionated; pivot via the matrix._